Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Voting v. Voting

I was inspired (in more ways than this) by Skippy's rousing appeal for civic participation and I want it understood that I consider what follows as an addition to, not a response to that author's essay. I am in complete agreement with the views expressed in "Vote or Die". I only wish to emphasize the need for informed participation, which I'm sure is the intention of my co-conspirator.

It is completely understandable that people do not bother with voting. For the most part people don't understand what they are voting about anyway and vote based on some emotive impression of one or two issues if they vote at all. To further my discusion, I am including an explanation/description of ignorant voting behaviors below:


A person purchasing a new car usually spends time learning about various makes of cars and shopping for prices. The more effort spent in these activities, the more one's knowledge about cars and their prices increases. Because time is limited, and spending time searching for information means that one cannot use that time for other purposes, there is a limit on how much knowledge is worthwhile to gain. After some amount of reading, talking to friends and acquaintances, and visiting automobile dealers, a person finds that the extra benefit of another hour spent on these activities is less than the value of that hour spent in other pursuits. When one judges that this point has been reached, one stops searching and makes a decision.

The amount of time people spend obtaining information differs from product to product. They will spend less time learning about the bicycle they give their child than they will learning about a new car, less time deciding which brand of soup to buy than in deciding which house to purchase, and less time deciding which brand of dog food is best for Rover than in finding a college for their first-born. The larger the purchase, the larger the potential benefit of a few hours spent learning about the purchase.

The government has many policies that involve major sums of money. For example, a major weapons system in the defense department can cost $50 billion. This amounts to about $200 for every person in the United States, or $1000 for a family of five. Yet few people spend much time studying these policies. A reason is that to understand them requires many hours of study, and the probability that an understanding of them will change them in any way is very small. Thus, for most citizens the benefit of learning about a program that does not directly affect them is small, the cost is large, and they end up not knowing much about the program. Economists say that these poorly informed citizens are rationally ignorant.

A look at costs and benefits not only explains why few citizens understand the subtleties of most government policies, but it also explains why about one half of the eligible voters in the United States do not vote. The probability that one's vote will be the crucial vote that decides an important election is small. Even if one's vote is the crucial vote that breaks the tie, one may not like the outcome--many people regret the way they voted when they compare actual performance with campaign promises. Given these small benefits compared to the costs of time and transportation that voting entails, it is not surprising that many people who are eligible to vote do not. What is surprising is that the percentage of people voting is not even smaller. It seems likely that there are other benefits to voting that have not yet been mentioned.

Politics is in many ways a spectator sport, with all the excitement and drama of football or baseball. Voting may be enjoyable in the same way as watching and cheering on a favorite ball team. Indeed, voting against a politician one does not like is enjoyable, even if it does not result in his defeat. Another explanation for voting is that people have a sense of public duty. They want to be good citizens, and voting may seem important regardless of its effect--the act of voting itself can be important as a symbolic act. One other possibility is that people may overestimate the importance of their vote and the probability that theirs will be the ballot that decides an election.

In contrast to elections in the United States, elections in the old Communist-bloc nations were predictable. There was no doubt about who would win. Yet, these countries reported impressive percentages--sometimes more than 99%, of their citizens voted. Anyone who understands how to reason in terms of costs and benefits should be able to explain the implications of very high participation rates in meaningless elections.


My personal appeal to voters everywhere is not to dispare at the vast complexities of a myriad of issues the consequences of which are beyond the capabilities of all the analysts and statisticians you could lock in an olympic arena for a hundred years. For every person, there is one issue/subject (at least) that is not only meaningful enough, but interesting enough to gain sufficient knowledge to have an informed opinion and basis for choosing a candidate. Please find your issue!

Just to help get you started - race, gender, and whether an R, D, or I follow the candidate's name are NOT issues.

I bring these thoughts together because I personally find it horrifying that there has been so much involvement in these primaries in particular. As a nation, we usually let the primaries crawl along with very little notice. Why so much attention now? I'd like to think that it was because of War, National Security, the Economy, the resurgence of the Russians, Terrorism, Illegal Immigration, or even plain old Taxes.....but is it? Are we hearing anything about these things? I don't know, but we're certainly hearing a lot about exit polls and "Women Back Clinton" and "Obama Gets Black Vote". We're hearing statements from exit polls like " It's time for a woman to be president". This is not American Idol, people!

And don't just vote for the initial you always chose, folks. Look around at the candidates these days. They're all so centrist, you might be surprised what you're getting.

In conclusion, nothing is gained from ignorant voting. Mearly voting for the sake of voting is worse than useless. It is not the expression of the will of the people. It is a waste of your time. And you may just be undoing the vote of someone who did bother to become informed. If you can't be arsed to become informed, don't bother voting!

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